Mike Isaac and David Yaffe-Bellany, reporting for The New York Times:

Polymarket and Kalshi, prediction markets where users can bet on outcomes as varied as the Super Bowl and the length of the State of the Union address, have been some of the fastest-growing destinations on the internet.

Mark Zuckerberg has noticed — and he wants in on the action.

Mr. Zuckerberg, the chief executive of Meta, recently dispatched a small team at his company to create a smartphone app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, two employees with knowledge of the matter said. Users would not wager money, and the app would probably rely on a video-game-like points system instead, one person said, though the company had not ruled out the eventual use of real money betting.

My first thought was that Zuckerberg is the most blatant and prolific intellectual property thief in Silicon Valley. But that’s hardly the most important news here: The world’s most famous social media company is about to launch a gambling app for billions of people.

Prediction markets have taken hold of the United States unlike any modern social product. The FIFA World Cup broadcast is littered with advertisements from Polymarket and Kalshi, and in states where they’re legal, sports betting companies buy out nearly all of the mid-match advertising slots. America clearly has a gambling problem. The premise is somewhat enticing: bet on real events, like sports or politics, and win some money. These “markets” require no experience or specialized knowledge and can potentially pay out thousands of dollars. Kalshi and Polymarket have even positioned themselves as an alternative to political polling by littering the internet with shady, scantly disclosed news sponsorships.

But this is about Meta, one of the richest and most disreputable companies in Silicon Valley. If Meta wanted, it could buy Kalshi and Polymarket, turn them into a billion-user monopoly, and turn the globe into a mess of young gamblers in a matter of months. Knowing Zuckerberg and his history of building snide gimmicks into Instagram and Facebook — so much so that his company lost a lawsuit against those gimmicks — I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the game plan for “Arena,” this new prediction market app. Meta’s apps have always functioned as high-risk, high-reward social platforms, and Arena would be yet another.

The “points system” will probably be how the app works, but that’s not to say real money won’t be involved. (Real money will always be involved; points are useless for Meta’s flailing stock price.) I think Meta would sell those points for a fee through an in-app purchase, or perhaps require people to watch advertisements to earn more. This is how questionable “free-to-play” mobile games became the crown jewel of the App Store — they litter their apps with dark patterns to force people to buy “gems” or “coins.” This is clearly Meta’s overall business strategy, leveraging the wealth of information it has on people from their Instagram and Facebook usage patterns to devise clever bait.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this app launches in the fall, right as the midterm election season begins. It only seems natural for a company like Meta to use its inordinate power to sway an election that could have disastrous consequences for the company.